Schools in my area are reopening and I am concerned about whether it is safe. Is reopening schools a good idea? Should I send my kids back to school or stick with the remote option?
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this post are my own and do not represent those of my employer.
School closures have been one of the most controversial aspects of this pandemic. Any time a debate involves concerns about the safety and well-being of children, tensions are bound to be high. There are legitimate concerns on both sides of this issue, and given the mixed messaging on the topic it is no surprise that many parents are confused about what is and is not safe. In this post, I will explore some of the evidence and recommendations pertaining to school closures and reopening in the hope that it might help give parents some peace of mind as they wrestle with these difficult decisions.
Before diving into the data, it is worth reemphasizing that we need to approach these sorts of decisions with the appropriate frame of mind. The conversation should not be about eliminating risk, which is impossible, but instead about managing risk and weighing the costs and benefits of different options. For the issue of in-person school, here are some of the factors one should consider:
1. The risk that children will be infected and face significant health issues.
2. The risk that teachers and staff will be infected and face significant health issues.
3. The risk that infections at school will lead to increased transmission within the community.
4. The benefits of in-person learning over remote learning in regards to educational outcomes.
5. The benefits of social and psychological benefits of in-person learning over remote learning.
Let’s examine these issues one by one.
1. What is the risk that children will be infected and face significant health issues?
Early on in the pandemic this was a significant concern. There was little data on how children responded to the virus and whether they could get sick. However, it quickly became apparent that although children could be infected, they were significantly less likely to show symptoms and to face serious complications from COVID-19. For example, as of March 24, 2021, the total number of children aged 0-17 in the US that have died from COVID was 238. That is not a typo. 238 total. For perspective, children were about 4 times more likely to die by drowning than die from COVID last year (https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2018/12/21/child-death). So, the risk of death is low. Similar trends are observed when you look at cases and hospitalizations. School age children are half as likely to test positive as an adult between the ages of 30 and 50 (their parents?) and between 10 and 15 times less likely to be hospitalized (see https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html). There have been some reports of long term complications due to COVID infections in children, but these outcomes are quite rare. So, all in all, this risk seems to be relatively low.
2. What is the risk that teachers and staff will be infected and face significant health issues?
The data is murkier on this point. For those who are young and who do not suffer from comorbidities, the risk of death remains relatively low, but the risk of hospitalization is substantially higher than for students, and many teachers and staff may fall in higher risk categories. However this is true of any profession, so perhaps a better question is whether school employees face heightened risks due to the nature of their work. Thankfully, there is some data on this. Emily Oster is a professor of economics at Brown University. In addition to writing an interesting blog about data-driven parenting, she has spearheaded efforts to collect data on school closures/reopenings in order to estimate these sorts of risks. Her analysis suggests that for most of the pandemic, case rates among school staff were slightly higher than in the general population, but not substantially so, and that this gap may disappear when you adjust for the different demographic profile of teachers when compared with that of their communities.
The good news is that since the new year, case rates for teachers have dropped below community levels. This may be due in part to vaccination rates. Teachers are now eligible to be vaccinated nationwide. This dramatically reduces the risk of infection as well as severe illness. As more and more teachers are vaccinated, concerns over this risk should decrease.
3. What is the risk that infections at school will lead to increased transmission within the community?
This is a big one. For many infectious diseases, schools play a significant role in transmission. Even for diseases that pose little danger to students, transmission between students often leads to transmission between students and their parents and grandparents which in turn leads to increased community transmission. This is one of the reasons why school closures are a relatively common mitigation tool during pandemics.
In the late summer, there was genuine concern that this would be true of COVID as well. Although up to that point children had not played a significant role in transmission, it was unclear whether that would continue if schools reopened in the fall. As a result, some schools opted for remote or hybrid learning, but many others decided to take the plunge.
And what happened? On this I will defer to the CDC:
“Based on the data available, in-person learning in schools has not been associated with substantial community transmission. Although national COVID-19 case incidence rates among children and adolescents have risen over time, this trend parallels trends observed among adults.Increases in case incidence among school-aged children and school reopenings do not appear to pre-date increases in community transmission.”
In other words, as best we can tell, although there have been a few outbreaks at schools, in-person learning has not generally led to increased transmission in the community. So although it was completely legitimate to worry about this back in August, we now have plenty of evidence that this risk is not as large as was feared.
4. What are the educational benefits of in-person learning over remote learning?
As many parents can attest, remote learning is no picnic. It requires substantial effort on the part of parents and particularly for young children, maintaining focus can be a challenge. As such many educational experts predicted that the academic progress obtained during the pandemic would fall short of what is observed during a typical year. Although the data on this is still incomplete, early returns suggest that this achievement gap is real. For example, a study by the NWEA compared test scores recorded during the fall of 2019 to those recorded during the fall of 2020 and found small decreases in reading scores along with substantial decreases in math scores. The gaps were largest at lower grade levels. The good news is that these gaps fell short of initial projections indicating that while remote/hybrid learning may be hurting academic progress, the impact was not as severe as initially feared.
5. What are the social and psychological benefits of in-person learning over remote learning?
Of the five concerns, this one is the hardest to quantify and it is not particularly close. I found plenty of qualitative or predictive studies (see for example this study) warning of increased stressed levels, weight gain, and mental health issues among other risks associated with remote learning, but quantitative evidence was hard to come by. As a former home-schooler, I know it is possible to flourish without a traditional school environment. However, I also know that type of education is not for everyone, especially those whose parents both work or who are unable to provide the level of support and guidance that is required.
Online education can be quite challenging even for the technologically savvy. I was a college professor at the time of the spring lockdowns, so I got to experience first hand how students adjusted to this unexpected change in format. Many students were able to adapt quickly, but others genuinely struggled. If college students have a hard time with remote learning, then I can only imagine how difficult that must be for an elementary school student. So, although this issue is hard to pin down. It is worth considering that the downside of remote learning does extend beyond academics.
Conclusions:
So where does that leave us? Is reopening schools a good idea? Is returning to in-person learning wise? Unfortunately, a blanket yes or no answer really doesn’t cut it. It depends. It depends on the level of community transmission. It depends on the capacity of the local hospital. At this point in the pandemic, we are not out of the woods yet but the worst is likely behind us. Community transmission is at moderate levels. Hospital admissions are down substantially from the peak and hospitals in most regions are again able to catch their breath. Under these circumstances, it absolutely makes sense to at least think about reopening schools.
Whether the answer to that question should be yes will depend on the preparedness of the school and the willingness of the staff and students to adopt precautions. Schools that adopt mitigation measures like mask wearing and social distancing see substantially lower rates of transmission.
Whether individuals should return to in-person learning or stick with a remote or hybrid option when given the choice should depend on the risk profile of the individual. For students and teachers with comorbidities like obesity, diabetes, asthma, or immune disorders, the risks from in-person learning could be unacceptably high. For those individuals, continuing with remote learning until they are vaccinated might be the most prudent course of action. However, for most, the risks associated with in-person learning are relatively low if reasonable precautions are adopted and the benefits of a return to in-person learning are substantial. This does not mean returning to business as usual. For example, large gatherings should still be avoided. However, with a little creativity, I think most schools can find a way to resume many of their normal activities relatively safely.
It seems the CDC agrees. Perhaps that is why they recently updated their guidelines to say the following:
“It is critical for schools to open as safely and as quickly as possible for in-person learning. To enable schools to open and remain open, it is important to adopt and correctly and consistently implement actions to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, not only inside the school, but also in the community. This means that students, families, teachers, school staff, and all community members should take actions to protect themselves and others where they live, work, learn, and play. “
On a more personal note, I wrestled with this decision back in the fall. My oldest son was entering first grade and his school decided to move forward with in-person learning. As someone who had spent an inordinate amount of time investigating COVID and keeping up with the latest developments, I knew the risks to my son’s health were relatively small, but I was legitimately concerned about the possibility that it might cause harm to our community. However, as I studied the relevant data, I came to the conclusion that given the precautions the school had adopted: temperature checks, social distancing and mask wearing, the risk was low enough to proceed.
Looking back, it was the right choice. So far there have been only a couple of cases (which is to be expected given the level of community transmission) and no large scale transmission events. Meanwhile the kids are doing a great job of following the guidelines, and wearing masks without complaint. My son loves school and is so thankful that he is able to attend in person. Although he looks forward to the day that he doesn’t need to wear his mask and he is eager to get his vaccine once he is eligible, it doesn’t prevent him from enjoying the benefits of being in school, and I am grateful that he has that opportunity. I am hopeful that in the coming weeks and months, students around the country will have that opportunity as well.
PS. This discussion applies to elementary, middle and high school. Higher education and non-educational settings face a different set of risks and challenges and decisions on reopening should be evaluated in light of those distinct considerations.