The light at the end of the tunnel

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this post are my own and do not represent those of my employer.

It has been a long year. Exactly 365 days ago today, it was a Saturday, and I was at home preparing to speak at my local church. I was scheduled to teach about Colossians 3:1-17, a passage that closes with the verse that serves as my motto in life:

“And whatever you do, in word or deed, do everything in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father through him.”

Unfortunately, I had started to feel sick that morning and as the day rolled on it got worse and worse. Ultimately, I spoke to my fellow elders in the church and we agreed that it would be best for me to stay home. We had been following the news about a novel virus that was spreading around the world, and although there hadn’t been any local cases yet it was becoming increasingly clear that it was only a matter of time. So, I stayed home and instead, the lead pastor took the opportunity to prepare the congregation for the pandemic that was coming and the ways that it would undoubtedly disrupt life as we knew it. I did not realize it at the time, but that would be our last indoor church service for over a year.

At this point, we are all numb to the reality of what the world has experienced. Life has been disrupted in so many unprecedented ways that the word unprecedented has worn out its welcome. There have been over 500,000 confirmed US deaths attributed to COVID (1/3 of which have been recorded since the new year), and the excess death totals (deaths beyond a typical year) are 30-50% higher than that.

If you have been following this blog for a while, the plots below may look familiar. They are updated versions of the ones discussed here and here (where you can find a more detailed explanation) and they show how the number of deaths due to all causes have varied from year to year. They illustrate just how anomalous 2020 has been and the profound impact of COVID.

At the peak we were losing almost 4000 people to COVID each day! The analysis of excess deaths reveals that the vast majority of those people would have lived on under normal conditions if not for the pandemic. But thankfully, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Here are the recent trends from the COVID Tracking Project.

Cases have dropped by 75% from the peak around January 1. The number of people hospitalized with COVID has dropped by 65%. The number of deaths per day has dropped by almost 50%. All three national totals are still in decline.

There are promising new treatments using monoclonal antibodies that appear to significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization in patients with COVID-19 (see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029849 and https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035002). We also have not one but three different vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson and Johnson) that are highly effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic infections and that reduce the risk of hospitalization and death to close to zero. These vaccines were developed faster and work better than anticipated thanks to the efforts of scientists in both the private sector and government as well as investment from both the Trump and Biden administrations. This is wonderful news!

Thus far around 60 million people have received at least 1 dose of the vaccinated which means that the benefits of this more widespread immunity are only beginning to be felt. Given that most of the decline in cases, hospitalizations and deaths thus far can be attributed to other factors, there is hope that things will continue to improve as more and more people get vaccinated. Although it is unlikely that we will completely eliminate this virus, it is likely that COVID will eventually be seen as something preventable and manageable, rather than a threat capable of disrupting modern life. We may battle COVID season annually, but with better treatments and effective vaccines the risk of a large outbreak will be dramatically reduced if not eliminated. Ironically, someday those misguided comparisons between COVID and the flu, may not be nearly as absurd thanks to better treatments and widespread immunity.

However, it is worth remembering that seeing the light at the end of the tunnel is not the same as being out of the tunnel. Once you see the light, you still have to travel those last few hundred yards to emerge into the sunlight and fresh air. To stop before escaping the tunnel completely would be to remain in danger.

So what will it take to make it to the end?

The first thing it will take is patience. I know we are all eager to get back to normal. We have all made sacrifices to try to help one another get through this, from little things like moving gatherings outdoors or wearing a mask to big things like postponing weddings and watching funerals and graduations through the screen of a computer. Now is not the time to give up on taking precautions to manage the risk to ourselves and more importantly to our neighbors. I know many states are rolling back restrictions, but we shouldn’t take that to mean that the time for caution is over. We are already seeing signs that cases are on the rise in a handful of states. Until most of the population has been vaccinated, a risk of further waves remains. Current projections suggest that we should have enough vaccines for the entire US adult population could be vaccinated by some point during the summer. If we can hold on just a few months longer, we can avoid needless loss life.

The second thing it will take is a shot in the arm. Vaccine hesitancy is dropping but it remains high. At some point in the next couple of months, the supply of vaccine is likely to catch up to demand and at that point there may not be enough people willing to get vaccinated to use the vaccines that have been produced. If the vaccine rollout stalls at that point, then we will fall short of the herd immunity threshold (at least 70-80% of the population) and the remaining unvaccinated population will remain susceptible to further outbreaks causing the pandemic to drag on much longer than it needs to.

Now, I have a confession about vaccines. I haven’t always been diligent about getting vaccinated. It is not that I was opposed to getting a flu shot, it is just that it didn’t feel urgent because I knew that my risk was low. So, I often didn’t bother. Despite having studied epidemics for years, I had never taken the time to look closely at how dangerous influenza is to the elderly and immuno-compromised until this year, and I did not take the risk that I might spread the flu to others into account. This was selfish of me. Moving forward, I expect flu shots to be an annual tradition in the Panaggio household and it would not surprise me if COVID-19 shots become a part of that as well. Again, this is not because we are concerned about getting sick, it is because by getting vaccinated we can reduce the risk of spreading these viruses to others. A trip to the doctor and a sore arm is a small price to pay for loving ones neighbors and a price that my family and I will be happy to pay.

Now, I know some have concerns about vaccines and whether they are safe and ethical. All I can say is that I have read the arguments on both sides and as best I can tell, the ethical concerns don't hold up to scrutiny and the risks associated with vaccination are not zero but they are incredibly small compared to the risks of infection. Although there have been adverse reactions, those reactions are extremely rare while adverse reactions to COVID (namely hospitalization, respiratory failure and death) are more common by orders of magnitude. For perspective, as of March 1 there had been less than 1400 deaths among people the nearly 60 million people who had received the vaccine. Most of those deaths have nothing to do with the vaccine, but they are being investigated regardless. On the other hand, there have been roughly 30 million confirmed COVID cases, directly leading to over 500,000 deaths (this does not include other causes of death). If we had just waited until those 60 million vaccine recipients were infected with COVID, the number of deaths would have been in the hundreds of thousands. So, if you base your vaccination decision solely on whether your risks are lower with or without the vaccine, then you are better off getting vaccinated. But, there is a more powerful reason to get vaccinated, particularly for those of us who call ourselves Christians: concern for our neighbors. Once you factor in how your choice to get vaccinated reduces their risks, then it is hard to make a case against the vaccine.

That is why I spent yesterday morning at a mass vaccination site at Six Flags about 30 minutes from where I live. I was amazed at the number of people there. The line of cars was long but it moved steadily as it wound around and around the parking lot. Along the way, the workers there checked my ID, asked me a few questions to confirm eligibility (I am fortunate enough to have been deemed a Critical Infrastructure Worker), and then had me drive through a large tent where I received my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine through my car window. I was then asked to wait for 15 minutes in a parking lot while a nurse walked around making sure no one had an adverse reaction, before being sent on my way.

The entire experience was surreal. Seeing an amusement park parking lot transformed into a makeshift medical clinic was something I never expected to witness. Spending two hours in line is not my ideal way to spend a Saturday morning, but it was well worth it. I came away encouraged that a return to normalcy is in sight and thankful that amazing technology like mRNA vaccines are available. The time when there are enough vaccines for everyone who wants one is coming soon.

When the time comes, will you sign up? I hope so. If not for yourself, do it for others. And if you are a Christian, I hope that you will do so with the words of Colossians 3:17 in mind:

“And whatever you do, in word or deed, do everything in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father through him.”

P.S. If you are wrestling with whether Christians should take the vaccine, you should check out this video series by a Seminary professor, Curtis Chang, that discusses the COVID19 vaccine and presents a biblical argument for why Christians can and should take it when they are able. The series addresses many of the common objections and concerns about the vaccines in a respectful and thoughtful way. I highly recommend it.

PPS. The cover image comes from: https://www.flickr.com/photos/mellyjean/35207214/ .

Here is the license information: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/