GECKO

It is not often that I get to share my work, so it was neat to see a hospital admission model I created (GECKO: Orange) incorporated into the CDC Ensemble and shared publicly.

You can check out the state level forecasts via this link. These models are not crystal balls, but they do give us a window into how things are trending and the range of outcomes we might expect. Historically, the prediction ranges indicated by the colored bands have contained the observed outcomes around 50% (dark) and over 90% (light) of the time. As such, tools like this can give us a sense of where the pandemic is headed over the next few weeks.

And in case any one is wondering about the name GECKO, here is my inspiration:

From tallest to shortest: Mario, Cat-boy and Gecko. Although, this is technically a Halloween photo, these heroes make frequent appearances around the Panaggio house.