What is it that allows an infectious disease to cause an epidemic or even a pandemic? It turns out that you need a transmissible entity (such as a virus), a transmission pathway (such as aerosols or droplets), and an environment where susceptible and infected people frequently come into contact (such as workplaces, restaurants, etc.). Without these three ingredients, no epidemic is possible. You cannot have an epidemic of broken legs because, of course, the cause is not transmissible. You cannot have an epidemic of food poisoning because although the contaminant could be transmitted from person to person in theory, there is no natural mechanism for this transmission. And you do not see epidemics of disease once a large enough fraction of the population has been vaccinated because there are not enough transmissible contacts between susceptible and infected people.
All three of these ingredients must be present for an epidemic to occur, but these three ingredients alone are not sufficient. Transmission must also be relatively frequent in order for an epidemic to occur. The average infected individual must infect more than one other person for an epidemic to occur. When this happens, the result is exponential growth resulting from a positive feedback loop in which more people are exposed to the “pathogen” when more people have been infected and vice versa. In this way, exposures give rise to infections which give rise to more exposures and the cycle repeats. The equations that describe this growth are nearly identical to the ones that describe the detonation of explosives (including nuclear weapons), population growth (think breeding like rabbits), combustion (think forest fires), compound interest, the adoption of new technology and especially the spread of information.
Information is like a virus
Yes, information (a video, a picture, a song, or even a story) is like a virus. It can spread from person to person through face to face interaction, emails, text messages and posts on social media. Once one person has a piece of information, they can spread it to the people that they come in contact with. When the average recipient of a piece of information shares it with more than one other person, then that piece of information can “go viral” and spread throughout a population. If you don’t believe that the epidemics and viral information are remarkably similar, check out the spread of one particular piece of information, a viral music video from 2012. This graph shows the number of views of this video over time:
Looking at the shape of the graph, it would be easy to mistake it for the latest COVID-19 numbers!
For most of human history, this viral spread of information was rare. Sharing information took a lot of time and effort, and the world was not as interconnected as it is now. As a result, it was rare to cross the threshold of 1 new “infection” caused by each “infected” person on average (which is analogous to the reproduction ratio discussed in the context of epidemics like COVID-19). However, the rise of the internet and social media has removed those barriers. Now, we are bombarded with information all the time through the phones that rarely leave our possession, and we can share information instantly with hundreds of people (or more) with the simple click of a button.
As a result, we see viral information spreading all the time. Sometimes it spreads only within a small community because the rest of the world is not “susceptible” to that information (i.e. they have no interest in sharing it). Other times, it spreads worldwide until a significant percentage of the world’s population has been exposed.
Virality has a dark side
Some of the information that spreads this way is innocuous: a cute cat video, an amusing story, or a stunning picture. Some is a powerful tool for good. Viral phenomena can promote awareness of a need or an important problem that needs to be addressed. It can allow for mobilization against injustice and oppression. However, viral information can just as easily be pernicious like the entity it was named for. It is a double-edged sword that cuts both ways: it can be used as tool for both good and evil.
Because of this, social media platforms are ripe for abuse. Facebook profits when we see advertisements and the best way to make sure we see those advertisements is to grab our attention. What better way to grab our attention than to present us with things that provoke an emotional response? Metrics like clicks, likes and shares reveal that content that promotes outrage tends to engage people more than content that informs or educates. So, when their algorithms are trained to identify content that will increase those metrics (this happens automatically using mathematical techniques from calculus), we find our feeds filled with things that are sensational and controversial. In this ecosystem, lies can spread just as quickly as the truth and often faster. Content creators (including both lay people, “influencers”, companies and the media) are incentivized to produce the sort of content that generates a response and the result is a deluge of clickbait and inflammatory headlines.
The scary part is that this works. Social media platforms have become incredibly valuable and powerful by accumulating massive amounts of information about us. They can use that information (either actively or passively through their algorithms) to funnel targeted information our way. That information can have a profound impact on what we believe, and how we think, and how we view the world. As a result, we are all extremely vulnerable to manipulation. Deep down we know this and yet it is easy to feel powerless to prevent it from happening. As a result, we are becoming increasingly jaded (isn’t everyone dishonest?), apathetic (is there any way to tell what is true?) and ambivalent about truth ( does it even matter what is true?) and our trust in our institutions and each other is lower than it has ever been before (https://knightfoundation.org/reports/american-views-trust-media-and-democracy/).
What can we do?
Now, I am no Luddite. I enjoy technology more than most, and if you are reading this, then I am sure you are aware that I have been quite active on social media in the last few months. However, I am deeply troubled about what is going on in this country and around the world, and I believe that social media platforms have had a central (sometimes unintentional, but often irresponsible) role in eroding the fabric of our society. I have attempted to use this tool for good, but I am painfully aware of the many ways in which it is harming our ability to discern the truth and engage with each other in productive ways. I hope that someone, somewhere might read this post and be challenged to rethink their approach to social media. How? Well I am glad you asked. Here are a few things that come to mind:
1. First, we all need to be mindful that the information we share has the potential to spread much further than we might realize. Information, and especially misinformation, is like a virus. It can spread very quickly from person to person and social media is the perfect vehicle for that transmission. When we click share or retweet or reposting something, we run the risk of “infecting” someone else with an idea and thereby continuing the chain of spread. So, the simple action of clicking a button could be enough to directly expose hundreds of people to that piece of information and it could expose thousands or more indirectly through the people we “infect”.
2. Second, we need to be mindful of the fact that information that is shared widely need not be factual. When you find something shocking, contrarian or controversial on social media, it is a good idea to approach it with a healthy degree of skepticism and to verify information using credible outside sources before believing it AND, even more importantly, before reposting it.
3. Third, we need to be aware that viral content is not always as organic as it seems. Advertisers, politicians, propagandists, and entrepreneurial crooks (which sometimes overlaps with the first three categories) can use carefully designed viral content to drive traffic and resources in ways that support their agendas, and those agendas may not be in our best interest. So, before sharing anything, we would be wise to consider who stands to gain from the promotion of this content. If that is not the kind of entity that is worth supporting, then perhaps it shouldn’t be shared.
4. And finally, before we repost content, we should ask ourselves: Is this the sort of thing that I would want to go viral? Do I have sound reasons for believing that this is truthful? If thousands of people of people were to see this, am I confident that this would not be harmful to someone? If the answer is no to any of those question, then perhaps it is not worth sharing. When in doubt, DON’T share! If anything, our standards for sharing information publicly should be even higher than our standards for believing it privately because what we share publicly has the potential to cause significantly more harm. Far too often, people share information that they find provocative without really considering whether that information is true and whether it is “helpful for building others up” (Ephesians 4:29).
In my next post, I will look at another one of the effects of social media on society: increased political polarization. Stay tuned.
PS. Here are few tips for avoiding misinformation on social media:
Know the source: Do your homework and check whether the source is credible, has relevant qualifications or expertise and whether it has a track record of factual reporting. A glance at the website or group’s “about” page and a quick google search is often enough to identify questionable sources.
For news, use multiple sources: Check media sources from across the political spectrum when verifying information about current events and try to avoid sources that exhibit extreme bias and that frequently fail fact checks. For media sources, I like to use this website https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ to quickly get a sense of a sources leanings and track record. If you only hear from one side, the odds are that you are not getting the full story.
Know the signs of manipulative sources: Subtle factors can influence our perceptions. Headlines, loaded language, and blurred lines between opinion and fact can subconsciously shift our perspective. This article illustrates some of the things to be on the lookout for: https://guides.lib.uw.edu/research/evaluate/bias.
Avoid falling for conspiracy theories: Once a theory becomes entrenched it is difficult to be convinced otherwise, and that is why checking sources up front before you fall for it is important. That simple step can help catch quite a few conspiracies. If something shared on social media seems unbelievable it probably is, and it is worth the 30 seconds it takes to go to snopes.com or the more labor intensive but still worthwhile step of asking someone else who is more informed before falling for a lie.