Inflection point

When I started this writing experiment back in March, there was no plan. All I knew was (a) that the world was facing a serious threat in the novel coronavirus, (b) that disinformation was rampant even among my social circles, and (c) that I was very concerned and wanted to do something to help with the situation. I am not a medical doctor and I was living in rural Michigan at the time, so working on the front lines of the battle against the virus was not really an option. However, the one thing I did have to offer was a background in applied mathematics and experience with mathematical epidemiology. So, I decided to try to use that expertise to try to combat misinformation and spread factual information to my social circles in the hope that I could help some people better understand what was going on, why they should take it seriously, and how we should respond.

It started with responding to some misguided posts from friends on Facebook to try to help them understand why this was a bigger deal than the seasonal flu. I wasn’t expecting much, but to my surprise people actually took it well and seemed to reevaluate their thinking. Then, I wrote a post on Facebook in which I shared a couple of models that I had been playing around with to try to see for myself if things were as bad as some people were saying. To my shock, people started sharing my post and soon I was getting responses from strangers about it. I was flattered that anyone cared what I had to say and that people were coming away from my post both encouraged and informed, so I decided to keep writing and sharing. Fast forward a couple of months and the Facebook posts turned into a blog with over 20 posts and counting. I don’t know for sure how many people have read these posts or whether they are actually a making difference, but I hope that they still are.

For months, COVID-19 has dominated the news and much of the public’s attention. However, in recent weeks, it has become clear that people are sick of hearing about the coronavirus. Part of that stems from fatigue after 3 months of hearing about the same topic. Part of it stems from the fact that, other than acknowledging milestone after grim milestone, there is not much new to say. Part of it stems from the fact that society has started to reopen, and people are eager to move on to the next thing. And part of it is just denial, this is far from over and people are continuing to die at a rate of over 1000 per day in the US, but it is easier to pretend that isn’t happening.

There is a famous (and cynical) saying that “one death is a tragedy, one hundred thousand deaths is a statistic.” At this point, the devastation caused by COVID-19 has turned into a statistic, and in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd, we have a tragedy on our hands. This tragedy has called attention to important issues that many of us have too long ignored, and understandably, concern over the virus has faded into the background.

I believe that both the coronavirus and the many issues brought to light by Floyd’s death and the resulting protests warrant our attention, so that puts this blog at a bit of an inflection point. Do I continue to talk about epidemiology and ignore everything else that is going on? Do I stop writing and find a new hobby? I have debated these options for a while now and have come to a decision: I will keep writing as long as you all keep reading and as long as I feel like I have something useful to say.

That brings me back to the reason I started writing in the first place: to use whatever expertise I have to try to make a difference in the world. But how can I do that? What can I write about? Since my research these days focuses on mathematical modeling and data science, that seems like a good place to start.

So, over the next few weeks I intend to branch out from writing exclusively about COVID-19 and explore a variety of contexts where math and statistics can give us insight into why the world is the way that it is and what we can do to make it a better place. I will try to focus on issues that relate to current events and as a result, some of the posts may delve into topics that are somewhat political. As much as possible, I will try to let the data speak for itself rather than sharing my opinions. However, at times my beliefs will come through, and so rather than trying to conceal that, I would like to lay my cards on the table and explain where I am coming from.

First off, I am a Christian. I believe in a personal God who reveals himself through the Bible. This is the foundation of my worldview and shapes the way that I approach questions about the purpose of life and the nature of reality. My answers to two of the most important questions that we can wrestle with, “What is wrong with the world?” and “How can we fix it?”, are shaped by that foundation. Fully unpacking my answer to those questions and how they are influenced by the Christian faith is not something that can be done in a short blogpost, but I should briefly mention two things. The first is that I believe that any solution to the world’s problems that does not address the sinfulness of the human heart is incomplete. The second is that I believe that we have a responsibility to care about suffering and injustice in the world and to do what we can to alleviate it. I have no illusions that more information or education can completely solve the problems our society is facing, but I do think they can help.

Secondly, my political leanings are grounded in my faith and not in any party affiliation. Historically, I have considered myself a conservative. Although my core values have not changed, I have serious misgivings about what conservatism has come to represent in 2020. The purpose of this blog is not to disseminate my political beliefs, but at times I will be critical of the status quo. Given the current climate and the fact that we have Republican president, some may interpret this as a sign that I am “just another liberal.” However, that could not be further from the truth, and regardless of who wins the election later this year, you can expect that I will not hold back when criticism is warranted.

In my last post, I talked about how frustrating I find the current political and social climate. It is nearly impossible to have meaningful dialogue amidst the divisions in our society. In response, I raised the question: How did we get here? Over the next few weeks, I intend to examine that question and look at some of the factors at work that contribute to these divisions and that make overcoming them so challenging. In this series of posts, I will draw on research from a variety of scientific fields, but especially from an area called “Network Science” that involves the study of the structure and behavior of the networks that make up our society. Along the way I will explore questions like:

Why is it so hard for us to understand one another?

How does social media contribute to polarization?

How is it that disinformation seems to spread so quickly?

How do we make sense of the tradeoffs between safety and freedom?

How do mental shortcuts contribute to our biases and inaccurate assessments of risk?

I cannot promise to fully answer those questions, but I hope to provide at least a little bit of insight. Stay tuned.

PS. I always find it encouraging to hear from my readers. If you have enjoyed this blog, know that your likes and comments are appreciated. They help me know that someone is listening and motivates me to keep going. Occasionally, they even spark a fruitful discussion in the comments, and I welcome that sort of thing. So please keep it up! And if you have found this blog helpful or informative, please share it with others so that it will reach as many people as possible.

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