All models are wrong, some models are more wrong than others
In the first post in this “All models are wrong” series (which I decided was a series about 2 minutes ago), I talked about how the...
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All models are wrong, but does that mean we should ignore them?
Over the course of this pandemic a narrative has emerged that the models were wrong. I have heard this from a variety of different...
Many states are moving on from social distancing
States around the country are starting to lift the restrictions on businesses and movement in the hopes of reviving a struggling economy....
Is herd immunity the answer?
If you have been following the news, you have no doubt heard about herd immunity as a possible solution to the coronavirus problem. The...
The CDC counts suspected flu deaths too
I have often heard the following three arguments from those who are downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19: 1. We can’t trust models to...
Would intermittent social distancing work?
In a previous post, I looked at the effects of a complete or partial return to normal behavior after 40 days of intense social distancing...
Civil discourse, optimization and COVID-19
I have posted quite a bit about the importance of social distancing, and some might be tempted to think that this means that I agree with...
What happens if we "reopen the economy"?
In recent days, I have heard and read that many experts believe that we are past the peak for (at least the first wave of) COVID-19...
Your Flogic is Lawed
On March 15 I wrote (That's right I am starting the first post of this blog by quoting myself...are you sure you still want to read...
Observations from COVID19 data exploration
How much have the stay-at-home orders actually changed people's mobility patterns? Answer: Not as much as you might think. I have...
It is not time to stop social distancing yet
It has been about a month since the world (or at least since my world) was turned upside down by COVID-19. I know I am getting tired of...
Modeling epidemics
It is a surreal time to be a teaching a course on mathematical modeling. In the past, it has been important to sell students on why this...
Can we estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases from imperfect data?
I received this question from a friend after posting the following: The last couple of updates on the number of US COVID-19 cases have...
Uncertainty => inaction?
In recent days, I have been seeing an increasing number of op-eds making the following argument: 1. Because we are not yet able to test...
Let's take this seriously without panicking
I have been posting a lot of information over the last week (probably more this week than the previous 10 years combined). The reason for...
Are we "making decisions without reliable data"? Yes, and it's a shame we have to.
A friend of mine, sent me the following message: "Thought you might like this piece. By John Ionnidis - Professor of medicine, of...
Is COVID-19 like the flu?
I am seeing a lot of posts on social media, even from people I know and care about, comparing the H1N1 outbreak in 2009 to COVID-19...
I'm back.
If you know me, you know that I don't post often on social media (it has been a while!), but these are no ordinary times. Mathematical...
Seeing 2020:
Current events through a mathematical lens
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