Mark J. PanaggioMay 13, 20209 min readAll models are wrong, some models are more wrong than othersIn the first post in this “All models are wrong” series (which I decided was a series about 2 minutes ago), I talked about how the...
Mark J. PanaggioMay 10, 202012 min readAll models are wrong, but does that mean we should ignore them? Over the course of this pandemic a narrative has emerged that the models were wrong. I have heard this from a variety of different...
Mark J. PanaggioMay 6, 20202 min readMany states are moving on from social distancingStates around the country are starting to lift the restrictions on businesses and movement in the hopes of reviving a struggling economy....
Mark J. PanaggioMay 4, 20206 min readIs herd immunity the answer?If you have been following the news, you have no doubt heard about herd immunity as a possible solution to the coronavirus problem. The...
Mark J. PanaggioMay 2, 20202 min readThe CDC counts suspected flu deaths tooI have often heard the following three arguments from those who are downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19: 1. We can’t trust models to...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 30, 20203 min readWould intermittent social distancing work?In a previous post, I looked at the effects of a complete or partial return to normal behavior after 40 days of intense social distancing...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 29, 20207 min readCivil discourse, optimization and COVID-19 I have posted quite a bit about the importance of social distancing, and some might be tempted to think that this means that I agree with...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 28, 20206 min readWhat happens if we "reopen the economy"?In recent days, I have heard and read that many experts believe that we are past the peak for (at least the first wave of) COVID-19...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 23, 20203 min readYour Flogic is LawedOn March 15 I wrote (That's right I am starting the first post of this blog by quoting myself...are you sure you still want to read...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 20, 20201 min readObservations from COVID19 data explorationHow much have the stay-at-home orders actually changed people's mobility patterns? Answer: Not as much as you might think. I have...
Mark J. PanaggioApr 15, 20209 min readIt is not time to stop social distancing yetIt has been about a month since the world (or at least since my world) was turned upside down by COVID-19. I know I am getting tired of...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 31, 20202 min readModeling epidemicsIt is a surreal time to be a teaching a course on mathematical modeling. In the past, it has been important to sell students on why this...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 28, 20204 min readCan we estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases from imperfect data?I received this question from a friend after posting the following: The last couple of updates on the number of US COVID-19 cases have...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 27, 20205 min readUncertainty => inaction?In recent days, I have been seeing an increasing number of op-eds making the following argument: 1. Because we are not yet able to test...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 19, 20204 min readLet's take this seriously without panicking I have been posting a lot of information over the last week (probably more this week than the previous 10 years combined). The reason for...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 18, 20204 min readAre we "making decisions without reliable data"? Yes, and it's a shame we have to.A friend of mine, sent me the following message: "Thought you might like this piece. By John Ionnidis - Professor of medicine, of...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 14, 20204 min readIs COVID-19 like the flu?I am seeing a lot of posts on social media, even from people I know and care about, comparing the H1N1 outbreak in 2009 to COVID-19...
Mark J. PanaggioMar 14, 20202 min readI'm back.If you know me, you know that I don't post often on social media (it has been a while!), but these are no ordinary times. Mathematical...
